Recent poll shows Holscher leading with Kansas Dems. Is it part of national trend?
Less establishment candidates are doing well in Democratic primaries, which may be helping Holscher
By Dave Helling and Melinda Henneberger
What are we to make of a recent Kansas public opinion poll showing Democrat Cindy Holscher with a commanding lead in her party’s race for governor?
To start with the obvious, it’s good news for Sen. Holscher, and worrisome for her opponents, Sen. Ethan Corson and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog, at least for now.
But it may also reflect the growing importance of less establishment Democrats and independents — those who have not been crowned by those currently in power and are looking to do things differently.
If you’re thinking New York, don’t.
But as popular as Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly has been, nationally the interest in status quo candidates is not high, to say the least. And that may explain the current preference for Holscher over Kelly-endorsed and maybe too-tightly-embraced Corson.
Corson, who is a lawyer, has said that his work as an Obama-era advisor for the U.S. Department of Commerce and his time running the International Trade Administration in Washington have given him the right executive experience to lead the state.
Holscher, who grew up on a farm and is the first college graduate in her family, is running on her legislative work in Kansas — on schools, seniors and women and families, “not the coattails of the establishment or endorsements,” she said at a recent forum.
That’s the race so far, and it seems to be working for her.
The Capitol Bee, through Change Research, polled 1,022 likely Democratic primary voters — and found Holscher with a commanding lead of 37% of those surveyed.
Corson had 10% of the vote in the poll, followed by new entrant Skoog at 7%.
A full 44% of those surveyed are still making up their minds, which isn’t surprising, with six weeks to go before the August primary.
The Bee says the electorate remains fluid. “Before we pushed them, a 55% majority were undecided, with Holscher at 31, Corson at 8, and Skoog at 5,” the organization says. “Nearly half the people who say they’ll vote in August have not committed to anyone.”
All three candidates are from Johnson County, and Holscher and Corson have similar voting records.
But there’s no doubt that Holscher is the change candidate in the race. She’s someone who is less go-along-to-get-along with the Republican majority in Topeka than Kelly has been, and someone who is willing to break with her own party, too.
Corson is from the bluest senate district in the state, running as a bipartisan moderate in the realpolitik mode of Kelly. Voters in Holscher’s majority red district have split tickets to vote for her and for Trump, though her opponents definitely paint her as the leftiest of the three candidates in the Democratic field.
She is without question most likely to shake things up. If elected, her running mate, Wichita data analyst and State Rep. KC Ohaebosim, a Nigerian American, would be the first Black official elected statewide in more than a century.
Differences on data centers, stadium deal
There are real policy differences, too: Corson supported the Chiefs stadium deal, while Holscher opposed it as a giveaway to billionaires. She also criticized the lack of guarantees written into the bill that local labor would be used.
Another key difference is on data centers: Holscher has called for a moratorium on them. Corson and Skoog believe communities should decide on the local level.
In the Kansas Senate, both Holscher and Corson voted for a sales tax exemption for data centers that meet state requirements. But Corson sticks by that vote, while Holscher says that knowing what she knows now, and especially after hearing from people across the state about how they feel, she’d instead vote no.
At a recent forum hosted by KCUR, Corson said that he’d now support some new guardrails for such centers, and let each community make the decision: “We want to put these structures in place,” he said, referring to decommissioning agreements, a payment plan for energy use, a commitment to a community benefits agreement and a closed loop system of operations. “We want to make our communities, which are very diverse all across the state, we want to give them the ability to make the decision that is best for themselves.”
Holscher said that doesn’t go far enough. A statewide moratorium is needed, she said, “to make sure that parameters are in place. That’s what people are wanting, they’re wanting that protection. Because the fact of the matter is, they’re afraid that if these big tech companies come in and basically go right directly to the city council, they’re afraid they’re not going to get the protections. They’re asking the state to do this for them.”
Corson, with Kelly’s endorsement in his pocket, has just started running TV ads. “I wanted to pitch for the Royals,” he says. He promises to protect abortion rights, and says he “fought” for Medicaid expansion, which of course never happened in Kansas.
The spot seems pretty tepid. Corson clearly has some work to do, but he has time and money to do that work.
The poll Corson touts did not include Holscher
As for the money race, campaign spending reports are outdated. At the end of last year, Corson had raised about $902,000 for his race, a figure that has undoubtedly risen. Holscher raised $400,000 — but that figure, too, is likely much higher now.
Corson’s campaign also ballyhoos a poll — of Republican voters, conducted by former Rep. Tim Huelskamp, which says Corson “appears to be” the front-runner in his party, but it did not poll any voters on Corson versus Holscher, so that’s nothing more than an assumption.
That poll, taken in May, was aimed at GOP voters, not Democrats and independents. It showed Jeff Colyer in the lead for the Republican nomination for governor; Colyer is no longer in the race.
Curt Skoog’s fundraising numbers aren’t yet available online. He’s published his own poll, based on a “survey text sent to Kansas Democrats”, that shows the mayor with nearly 20% of the voters with a preference, with Holscher about half that.
Two-thirds of those responding are undecided.
The Bee says it’s possible, perhaps likely, that the Overland Park mayor is splitting the not-Holscher vote in the Democratic primary, helping her.
“The path to denying Holscher the nomination almost certainly runs through consolidating the non-Holscher vote behind a single challenger,” the organization says.
There are no indications that’s likely to happen.
Go, Cindy, go!